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At first, the former US president gave the impression to take a firm approach on Ukraine. After making warnings of "significant consequences" during the summer in case Putin persisted obstructing truce negotiations, Trump ultimately enacted considerable sanctions on the Russian biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision substantially impacted the Russian leader's capability to fund his war effort in the region.

But, through his newly presented comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly drafted by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukraine's or European involvement, he has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Invasion

This proposal would essentially reward the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democracy in danger. Despite ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", large portions of the proposal actually undermine that same autonomy. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his real-estate experience, the former president persists to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple border issue, like giving Putin a part of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Russia's war is not merely about occupying a destroyed swath of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent intention to weaken it so it stops functions as an attractive model for the Russian people of the democratic governance that Putin's deepening autocracy prevents them.

Land Concessions

Although maintaining in place the currently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would require Ukraine to abandon the whole Donetsk province. In addition to favoring Russia with land that its troops have been failed to capture in exceeding a lengthy period of conflict, this concession would render Ukrainian defensive positions severely weakened.

This region is the location of the nation's well-known "stronghold system", the well-established military defenses that are a essential barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, providing Putin a clear path to Kyiv in case he eventually choose to resume the hostilities.

Armed Forces Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would make additional conflict simpler for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to cut the size of its armed forces from their current approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's proposal imposes no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's campaign to characterize the nation's chosen by the people government as extremists, the proposal asserts: "Any Nazi doctrine and actions must be rejected and banned." As if to highlight this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal imposes no obligation that Putin risk his regime by allowing elections in Russia.

Defense Commitments

Certainly, the plan makes Russia promise not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and Ukraine". But considering that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent accords in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to recognize the nation's sovereignty in return for giving up its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a halt in fighting and a restoration of seized land in the Donbas to the government – why should anyone trust this commitment this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on international defense commitments. Although the initiative promises a "decisive coordinated military response" if Russia resume its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the details range from unclear to alarming. The initiative would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also preclude member states from positioning troops on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the security presence, reportedly commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Russia from replenishing his diminished troops, restocking, and attacking again.

International Response

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would offer the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "significant, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an attack threatening the peace and security of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. Yet in contrast to a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's best protection against renewed Russian aggression – the success of the supplementary deal would rely on the commitment of Western powers, such as the US administration, to react militarily to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not