Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
